Northeast India Situation

KEY UPDATES

• At least 12 insurgents arrested in India’s Northeast in the last month^{10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17} adding to over 10,135 arrests of insurgents made in Northeast India since 2014. During that same period, 587 insurgents have been killed in counter-insurgency efforts, along with the death of 128 special forces personnel.¹⁸15 membersof the Eastern Naga National Government surrendered to the Indian government on March 13th, 2023.¹⁹

• Over 170 Myanmar Refugees²⁰ arrested in Manipur since January for “illegal” entry into the country, adding to a rising number of arrests of Myanmar asylum-seekers in Manipur, deemed unlawful by many experts. Courts in Manipur have consistently sided with Myanmar nationals, stating that they are not “illegal” immigrants, and should be treated as refugees.²¹ One refugee died in custody in late February, 2023.²²

• 39,200¹ Myanmar asylum seekers are currently estimated in Mizoram, however, estimates are likely an undercount. The Mizoram government continues to issue Identity cards to refugees, however civil organizations still push the Indian government to afford stronger legal rights to asylum seekers.

• 7,350¹ Myanmar asylum-seekers are currently estimated in Manipur, however, estimates are likely undercounted. The majority of refugees in Manipur remain in hiding due to fear of retribution by the Manipur State government.

• Five governmeent officials of Manipur arrested for tampering official land records. The officials were attempting to fabricate government land, against the Manipur Land Revenue and Land Reform Act of 1960.²³ There were also clashes in Manipur among Indigenous activists and police forces over government wildlife sanctuaries encroaching on tribal lands.²⁴

• 21-year-old Myanmar refugee was gang raped in Delhi. She was abducted, along with her daughter, and raped by 4 men on February 22^nd, 2023, before being abandoned in an unknown location.²⁵

• Government of India withdraws AFSPA from 19 new police municipalities in Manipur.³⁸ The move by the Indian government represents recent shifts away from conflict and towards regional peace accords.

Situation Overview

In Myanmar, heavy fighting remained constant across the nation’s border states. March continued to see an increased number of airstrikes, evictions and destruction of homes, and arbitrary arrests and executions. Internationally Displaced Persons (IDPs) have continued to increase, specifically in the Northwest Sagaing Region, Chin State, and Magway Region, as well as in Southeast regions of the state. refugees and asylum-seekers in neighboring countries, and worsening food insecurities and fuel shortages.^{1, 4}

Northwest Myanmar saw dramatic increases in airstrikes, landmine incidents, arbitrary arrests and executions, and arson attacks. Increased violence has continued to drive an influx of refugees across the Indo-Burma border. Magway and Sagaing Regions both continued to experience Internet shutdowns and blackouts, hampering humanitarian access and communications among civilians. Fighting has increased the costs of essential goods due to movement and trade restrictions.⁴

Sagaing Region continued to experience arbitrary military arrests and executions. In early March, the Myanmar military raped, tortured, beheaded and executed at least 17 people in Nyaung Yin and Tar Tain villages of central Sagaing Region.⁸

There are an estimated 726,000¹ IDPs in Sagaing, a number driven by increased military air strikes and raids, imposed martial law, food shortages, destruction of property, among other violence in the region.⁴ Data for Myanmar has also published that, of the 55,484 homes burned by the Junta across Myanmar, 43,292⁵ homes have been burned down in Sagaing Region.

Chin State IDPs number north of 44,000¹ people. Over the last 2 months, Chin townships have been hit with over 53 airstrikes, amounting the dropping of over 140 bombs. The attacks are daily encounters and target military bases as well as civilian infrastructure such as churches, schools, hospitals, and homes.⁹

Souther Chin and Rakhine Regions still maintain a ceasefire between the Arakan Army and the Myanmar Armed Forces (MAF), however, many worry that the ceasefire will fail after the seasonal harvest is finished. There are reports of forced recruitment of civilians, and there has been an increased Rohingya exodus via dangerous land and sea routes.⁴

In March, the United Nations accompanied representatives of the Myanmar military regime to Bangladesh, where parties discussed repatriation strategies and terms of Rohingya refugees, however, many experts believe these talks are premature and unrealistic given current internal conflict in Myanmar.²⁶

Northeast and Southeast Myanmar has seen increased shelling and airstrikes, arbitrary arrests and forced labor, reduced access to food and basic needs, and continued attacks near town centers and IDPs sites.⁴

Mandalay saw upticks in IDPs in March consequence of forced evictions, destruction of homes, and arbitrary civilian arrests and executions. On March 11^th, 2023, the Myanmar military executed over 28 civilians sheltering in a monastery, among the murdered were 3 Buddhist monks. Those hiding in the monastery were reportedly lined up outside the building and shot.⁷ Also in Mandalay, the Myanmar military forcibly evicted residents of over 100 homes comprising of two residential blocks without warning. Residents had no time to collect their personal belongings before their homes were destroyed. Over 5,000 homes have been destroyed over military claims of encroachment on government land since the beginning of the coup.⁶

A new report by the UN Special Rapporteur on Myanmar, Thomas Andrews, reports over 58,000 homes being destroyed by the Myanmar military. Although UN figures vary between 50,000 and 80,000 Myanmar refugees and asylum seekers due to conflict in the country, Andrews reports that the number of undetected movement across international borders is likely in the hundreds of thousands.⁵

A note smuggled out of Obo prison in Mandalay and obtained by the Anti-Junta Forces Coordination Committee, on March 8^th, 2023, exposed violence against incarcerated women. The note describes an incident where 150 male prison cards beat over 100 female political prisoners with batons, bamboo sticks and slingshots, resulting in broken limbs as well as eye and facial injuries.²⁷

Across Myanmar, the Military regime has selected five political parties eligible for the general election. The parties selected are all either pro-military or lack enough support to win or gain any influence in national politics. The five parties selected are the Development Party, National Unity Party, Union Solidarity, Union Democratic Party, Public Contribute Students Democracy Party, and the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party. Opponents urge a boycott of the election, as any participation and loss will lend credibility to the military. Experts have concluded that elected officials will still not have the power to represent the people of Myanmar.²⁸

Internationally, new reports of aviation fuel shipments compiled by Amnesty International, Global Witness, and Burma Campaign UK, suggest that countries involved in recent shipments include Greece, India, Japan, Thailand, and Luxembourg.²⁹

Although the United States has passed the Burma Act, has brought a case against the Myanmar military to the International Court of Justice, supports a UN resolution prohibiting the import of guns into Myanmar, and currently maintains sanctions against 80 people and 32 entities, they have approved new development projects involving Japan and the Myanmar military. Experts believe that this shift in Japan and US policy stems from fears of China, Russia, and India gaining influence in Myanmar.³⁰

New reports suggest that in October, 2022, an Indian state-owned firm sold artillery barrels worth upwards of $330,000 USD to the Myanmar military.³¹ Indian government involvement in the Myanmar military regime can also be traced to the Bilateral Kaladan Transport project, which connects Rakhine State to Kolkata by a hybrid of sea, river, and road transportation via Mizoram. Min Aung Hlaing, the head of the military regime, has recently discussed the acceleration of the infrastructure project with the Indian foreign secretary, and has also visited transport construction sites. India has become the regimes top partner, after Russia, with frequent high-level bilateral visits.³²

In Northeast India, the government has yet to structure and implement wide-spread humanitarian and legal support for over 51,600¹ Myanmar refugees and asylum-seekers. Since January, 2023, over 170 Myanmar refugees and asylum-seekers have been arrested by Manipur officials.²⁰ In late February, 2023, a 32-year-old refugee died in custody in a Foreigner Detention Center in Imphal East District of Manipur. Although there were no reports of foul play, and the young man died of a cardiac arrest, no medical professionals arrived on site despite desperate calls for help when the young man went into cardiac arrest, and fellow detainees were unable to revive him. The conditions faced by detained refugees are harsh, sleeping on cold hard floors with little to eat.²²

In Manipur, there are an estimated 7,350¹ Myanmar refugees, most of whom are in hiding due to a crackdown on what Manipur Chief Minister N. Biren Singh is calling “illegal immigrants”.³³ Local residents who assist in hiding refugees have also been arrested, with the IPR minister Dr. Sapan Ranjan urging people to be alert against “illegal migrants” and not to assist in hiding them.³⁴ The government also assigned additional police personnel to the region in the wake of intensifying conflict close to the border. They hope to reduce the number of migrants crossing the border.³⁹

Manipur also saw increased disputes over land in the last month, with Indigenous rights activists clashing over government owned wildlife sanctuaries which they claim encroach on their tribal lands. In contrast, the Chief Minister N. Biren Singh accused the protesters of using protected forests for poppy and drug cultivation, despite the fact that many Indigenous peoples are local farmers growing legal groups to make a living.³⁵ Protests escalated, and protestors were reportedly injured by teargas, while police were injured by stones thrown at them.²³ Five government officials were arrested for tampering official government land records to fabricate government owned territory, violating the Manipur Land Revenue and Land Reform Act of 1960.²⁴

The Manipur government also withdrew from the Suspension of Operations agreement, of which signatories include the Kuki National Army (KNA) and the Zomi Revolutionary Army (ZRA), largely due to influencing agitation over potentially illegal government land claims. Experts fear that the government’s withdrawal could escalate the conflict between insurgency groups in Manipur and the government.³⁶

In Mizoram, there are an estimated 39,200¹ Myanmar refugees. The Mizoram State Government has undertaken informal measures to ensure the safety and security of Myanmar Nationals in the region. The government has led a campaign to issue Identity cards to all refugees.³⁷ Although the Identity Cards don’t hold any legal ramifications, they have helped refugees and asylum-seekers assimilate more freely into society, and have also given humanitarian aid organizations a structure within which to assess needs and administer aid.

Humanitarian Response

In Northwest Myanmar regions, humanitarian aid remains largely inaccessible to those in need due to heightened conflict. In the Magway Region, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has distributed 2,700 Core Relief Items (CRIs) to families in need Pakokku and Seikphyu Townships of Magway Region.¹

In Rakhine State, the ceasefire has improved humanitarian access. As of December 27^th, 2022, 11 humanitarian aid organizations have been granted access to the region. Restricted areas still remain, and humanitarian access across the rest of Myanmar is still largely restricted.⁴ The UNHCR and partners have distributed over CRIs to 19,687 IDPs (4,859 famalies), and 872 people in Rakhine North. People in Rakhine central also received assistance to build longhouses.¹

Kachin and Shan (North) States have received CRIs for 1,570 IDPs as well as 250 iron sheets provided to 25 IDPs to renovate shelters.¹ The region has also received micro-grants from the UNHCR to improve damaged civilian infrastructure.⁴

Southeast States have received CRIs for 16,253 IDPs, and 3,042 people (869 families) received iron roofing sheets. In Bago Region (East), the UNHCR distributed 270 desks and benches, benefiting 1,300 students and 700 IDPs.⁴